- Steve Jobs will 'for sure' want to be the FIRST person to announce the phone and he is expected to speak at the ADC come early June. Apple has also started a release of the phone is several countries, which leads to logistical difficulty in maintaining silence worldwide. For these two reasons... June 9th thru 13th are out. Again, Steve does not want to be scooped by anyone.
- June 29th? This would seem to be a natural date for release date, as it is the 'birthday' of the first iPhone. Unfortuantaly, This would mean no sales of iphones for almost 2 months (this is written on May 10th). This date does not sync with Job's desire to sell millions of phones before the end of 2008. I also doubt whether the stock holders & board members, and ATT would allow such a major hole in the schedule. For these reasons the 29th is right out. Also, the 29 is on a Sunday this year... a really weird day to release anything to the public.
- The fall or late summer. This idea has been floated by several people who follow the phone closely. I have great respect for them, however Apple needs to sell, and sell as many possible days as they can. Waiting until the end of summer will not help sales, as right now, they are out of stock almost everywhere. Waiting until the fall will also hurt Apples WallStreet stocks also.
- June 15 to July 12 has been designated as days its employees should not take time off from work. AT&T did this last year with the release of the first phone. Now reasoning says, AT&T would not need people manning the store, if no customers can get their hands on a iphone. But, they would need extra manpower early to stock shelves, train staff on procedures, and prime everyone on what to say and how to say it. This clue does narrow down the release date.
- Steve Jobs also has announced the 3rd party software will be release in late June. Apple also has had many of its 'release dates' slip in the past, so it would not surprise anyone if the software is release on the very last day of June, or possibly early July. Now this gives a small indication that Apple will want people who buy the phone to soon be able to install the apps. However, I'm betting Apple will want the phone to our hands prior to the app store launch. This will have the phones for people (read the press and blogging community) to get excited about first, and then the app store second.
- Some have predicted June 27th as the day. It's towards the end of the month; it is near the one year anniversary; it fits in with the AT&T schedule; it is also on a Friday, which allows people to rush the stores and have the entire weekend to play with the phone. It also allows Job's to boast about weekend sales, much like the movie industry does. One last thing... Friday also allows for WallStreet to hear about everyone swarming the stores to get the phone... which makes investors swarm all over Apple stock. This is a very good, but why again, wait one additional week with no one being able to buy the phone (which again, is out of stock almost everywhere)?
- So... with all this taken into account, what day will the iPhone be released? June 20th. Why?.... well.....
- It is on a Friday.
- It is near the anniversary.
- the 20th gives AT&T one working week fully staffed to set up and train it's sales force.
- It give the media 10ish days to go berzerk after Job's announces the phone which will dominate the news, then the press can go nuts for 10 days after the actual phone is released, and then the press/bloggers can dominate the news with the 3rd party apps news. A whole month of Apple news. Dang!!!
- And lastly, it gives apple several weeks after the anouncement to ship phones everyone, without the fear of leaked information getting onto the web... not scooping Steve.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Well, it appears the clearing of Apple's iphone stock can now be felt, not just in ATT stores, and Apple stores, but one Apples own on-line store. So this does seem to emphasize that Apple will indeed soon have a new phone. This also leads to serious speculation as to when the phone will be release. Here are some thoughts regarding some release dates: